Tokyo 2020

Tokyo’s chances of hosting 2020 Olympics

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The International Olympic Committee will make the first of three major votes at its session in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Saturday.

Nearly 100 IOC members will choose the host city of the 2020 Olympics — Istanbul, Madrid or Tokyo — via secret ballot beginning at 2:45 p.m. Eastern Time with the winner scheduled to be announced between 4 and 4:30. For more on what happens Saturday, click here.

OlympicTalk will look at the chances each city has of winning the vote. Here is a rundown of Tokyo:

IOC president Jacques Rogge will take the stage at the Buenos Aires Hilton on Saturday afternoon and announce an Olympic host city one last time. Will it go like this …

“The Games of the 32nd Olympiad are awarded to the city of … (opens envelope) … Tokyo.”

The oddsmakers say it likely will. The Associated Press called the Japanese capital a “slight favorite.” A complex mathematical formula on a website dedicated to predicting Olympic bid cities spit out Tokyo at No. 1, too.

Tokyo, which hosted the 1964 Olympics, isn’t as sexy of a pick as Istanbul. It doesn’t have as much bidding experience or IOC influence as Madrid. But it is steady, with $4.5 billion in the bank and without the unrest of Turkey (and its neighbor Syria) and the economic problems of Spain.

“Discover Tomorrow” is its slogan. It may just be in the driver’s seat after bowing out in third place in the 2016 Olympic bidding, but, as Paris 2012 can attest, that’s not always the best place to be.

“There is a sense of nervous energy as we close in on a six-year dream,” Tokyo 2020 leader Tsunekazu Takeda recently told reporters. “We live in challenging and rapidly changing times, and Tokyo’s is the best bid to deliver a dynamic Games in this climate.”

Istanbul’s chances | Madrid’s chances

There is potential to dash that dream. There’s the fact that the 2018 Winter Games are in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Does the IOC want back-to-back Asia Games?

Or the threat of an earthquake or a tsunami and the growing storyline of the leak of radiation-contaminated water at the Fukushima nuclear plant, 155 miles north of Tokyo. Takeda has said Tokyo’s air and water were unaffected by the fifth and largest leak since the plant was damaged by a 2011 tsunami.

Robert Livingstone, who produces the Olympic host city vote prediction website GamesBids.com, has Tokyo as a slight favorite over Istanbul. He said the Fukushima story is a concern but called it a “bit of a red herring.”

“The IOC knows these issues, knows it will be taken care of,” Livingstone said, noting the Olympics are still seven years down the road. “Tokyo has a really good plan, a compact plan. They developed it, did a decent job last time and improved on that plan.”

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In Japan, public support has jumped, from around 50 percent last year to about 70 (IOC poll) or 90 (Tokyo 2020 poll) today. A lack of backing back home hurt its bid for 2016. Much of the infrastructure that would be used in 2020 is already in place with a strong public transport system.

The IOC called Tokyo “a modern, dynamic city that sets global trends and, at the same time, has a strong respect for its history and culture” in its evaluation commission report in April.

“Our bid has strong and passionate public support and is united across all levels of government, sport and business,” Takeda said, “and is ready to deliver outstanding Games that will showcase the importance and inspirational power of sport.”

Key information for IOC session in Buenos Aires

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Russian skeleton stars banned from World Cups

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The two Russians who had their medals from the Sochi Olympics stripped because of doping have been barred from competing in World Cup races, at least temporarily.

It’s the latest sanction against Alexander Tretiyakov and Elena Nikitina, who had their medals — gold for Tretiyakov, bronze for Nikitina — taken away Wednesday after it was determined they were part of Russia’s state-sponsored doping program for Sochi.

They have already been banned from future Olympics and now may have no place to slide.

The International Bobsled and Skeleton Federation handed down the suspensions Thursday, effective immediately.

Tretiyakov and Nikitina were both planning to compete in World Cup races at Whistler, B.C., this weekend.

In all, four Russians have been suspended by the IBSF.

Along with Tretiyakov and Nikitina, Maria Orlova and Olga Potylitsyna — who have been racing on the lesser-tier Intercontinental Cup Circuit this season — were also banned, just as they were by the IOC.

All four are expected to appeal, and the IBSF said they will be entitled to a hearing if that happens.

“Sport is all about who’s the best on that day and if anything compromises that, like the situations in Sochi, it taints everything and kind of undermines the fundamental belief in the system and the competition itself,” said USA Bobsled and Skeleton CEO Darrin Steele, also is a vice president with the IBSF. “This is kind of righting the ship.”

The IBSF’s decision is a strong one and is in stark contrast to one made by the International Ski Federation (FIS), which is allowing Russian cross-country skiers found guilty of doping in Sochi to compete in World Cup events this weekend.

FIS wants to see detailed reasons why the IOC disciplinary panel reached its decisions about the Russian athletes.

The IBSF isn’t waiting.

“I understand that it was a difference of culture and that the Russians don’t believe they did anything wrong,” U.S. skeleton veteran Katie Uhlaender said after the IOC decision to strip the medals and issue the Olympic bans was announced Wednesday. “But this was the only way to fix it.”

Uhlaender should be promoted to the bronze medal spot once Nikitina, as the IOC has ordered, surrenders what had been her bronze from Sochi.

Tretiyakov was the men’s gold medalist; the revised results for that event would have Latvia’s Martins Dukurs getting gold, Matt Antoine of the U.S. bumped up to silver and Latvia’s Tomass Dukurs, Martins’ brother, taking bronze.

Uhlaender, originally fourth, would be third behind gold medalist Lizzy Yarnold of Britain and silver medalist Noelle Pikus-Pace of the U.S.

Sliders lauded the IOC for doing the right thing, though noted that racers like Uhlaender and Tomass Dukurs — even once they have medals in hand — will never be able to replicate the moment on a podium that they should have had in Sochi.

“Having the physical medal’s cool, but most of it in my opinion is the experience of everything that happens,” Antoine said. “That’s what you cherish the most.”

Not having the top Russians on the World Cup circuit figures to have a major impact on the points standings.

Nikitina leads after the first two races of the season, including a win last weekend in Park City, Utah.

Tretiyakov is fourth in the men’s standings, including a bronze at the season opener in Lake Placid, N.Y.

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MORE: IOC sets date, time to announce Russia Olympic decision

Russian skiers banned from Olympics allowed to race World Cup opener

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GENEVA (AP) — Russian cross-country skiers found guilty of doping at the Sochi Olympics can compete in World Cup races this weekend because the International Ski Federation (FIS) has been unable to prosecute its own cases in time.

Six Russians, including two Sochi medalists, were retroactively disqualified from the Winter Games this month and banned from the Olympics for life by the IOC.

FIS previously blocked all six from competing with interim suspensions, but those expired on Oct. 31. The International Olympic Committee judging panel then reached its verdicts this month.

However, FIS said Thursday that its own judicial body lacks key IOC documents to process cases.

“Consequently, the FIS Doping Panel is obliged to wait until the IOC Disciplinary Commission reasoned decisions are submitted with details of the evidence relied on,” said the governing body, which is responsible for imposing competition bans.

“As a consequence the active athletes are eligible to compete in FIS including World Cup competitions for the time being,” FIS said.

The World Cup season for men and women begins Friday in Ruka, Finland, with sprint and long-distance racing.

Organizers had not published starting lists Thursday for the three-day meeting and it was unclear which of the six intend to start.

Alexander Legkov and Maxim Vylegzhanin both won multiple medals in Sochi but were stripped by the IOC. The others suspended by the IOC were Evgeny Belov, Alexei Petukhov, Yulia Ivanova and Evgenia Shapovalova.

FIS said rules governed by the World Anti-Doping Agency meant it could not re-impose interim bans without “a specific allegation” plus evidence.

Attempting to assure cross-country skiers they will not be competing against doped rivals, FIS said an additional and independent testing program for Russians has been in operation since June and has taken about 250 blood and urine samples.

The three-man IOC disciplinary panel — chaired by Denis Oswald, a Swiss lawyer and member of the Olympic body’s executive board — has not issued detailed reasons for judgments in 10 cases from Sochi so far completed in cross-country skiing and skeleton.

Without positive doping tests, the panel used evidence of state-backed cover-ups and tampering of sample bottles in the Sochi laboratory first gathered last year by WADA investigator Richard McLaren.

At least 18 more Russian athletes are having their cases prosecuted in an ongoing series of hearings in Lausanne, Switzerland.

On Wednesday, the International Bobsled and Skeleton Federation said it would update “within the next days” action against four Russians, including the Sochi gold medalist Alexander Tretiyakov and bronze medalist Elena Nikitina.

Nikitina won a skeleton World Cup race last weekend in Park City, Utah — a result which may soon be overturned by the IBSF.

All the Russian athletes disqualified by the IOC can appeal to the Court of Arbitration for Sport.

On Dec. 5, IOC President Thomas Bach will announce after a board meeting if the Russian team will be banned from the Olympics, which open Feb. 9 in PyeongChang.

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MORE: IOC sets date, time to announce Russia Olympic decision