Brits estimate 46 medals for Team GB in 2016

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We may be a little less than four years from the Rio Olympics, but the Brits are already patting themselves on the back for a relatively impressive 46-medal haul, due to come home in 2016.

Mind you their best swimmer, Rebecca Adlington, just retired, and no one knows which flag Rory McIlroy will swing his sticks under when golf makes its triumphant return, but some nerds got together and published a formula in the British Journal of Sports Medicine to estimate that Team GB would win 63.5 medals in 2012, missing the actual total of 65 by only two. Well, one-and-a-half, really.

The authors looked at the average medal hauls of Team GB’s past, as well as the average relative increase that occurred to a host country’s count to determine that, depending on the balance of objective and subjectively judged sports, the advantage of hosting the Games is roughly 2.05 times the number of average medals won.

“Anecdotal evidence suggests that the crowd had a positive effect on athletes to raise their performance,” the authors offered. “But also, based on these results, crowds appear to have had an important effect on influencing officials to favor the home based performers, and hence increase their medal winning capacity.”

The authors then looked at the other side of the bell curve for Team GB to determine that, by pouring funding and athletes into your own Games you still have a 1.46 times advantage during your next Olympics.

Using the formula we can estimate that Brazil, which has averaged roughly 14 medals during the last five Games, will be able to put about 28 to 30 medals on the board when they host the next Olympics, and then 20 or so in 2020.

So, to recap: the Brits average roughly 31 medals every Olympics, so you multiply that by their 1.46 advantage as a recent host and you get 45.26. We’ll let you know how this all pans out in four years, but just know that whatever the count, it will be dramatically less than the Americans bring home. U-S-A! U-S-A!

2020 French Open women’s singles draw, results

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If Serena Williams is to win a record-tying 24th Grand Slam singles title at the French Open, she may have to go through her older sister in the fourth round.

Williams, the sixth seed, could play Venus Williams in the round of 16 at Roland Garros, which begins Sunday.

Serena opens against countrywoman Kristie Ahn, whom she beat in the first round at the U.S. Open. Serena could then get her U.S. Open quarterfinal opponent, fellow mom Tsvetana Pironkova of Bulgaria, in the second round.

If Venus is to reach the fourth round, she must potentially get past U.S. Open runner-up Victoria Azarenka in the second round. Azarenka beat Serena in the U.S. Open semifinals, ending the American’s latest bid to tie Margaret Court‘s major titles record.

Venus lost in the French Open first round the last two years.

The French Open top seed is 2018 champion Simona Halep, who could play 2019 semifinalist Amanda Anisimova in the third round.

Coco Gauff, the rising 16-year-old American, gets 2019 semifinalist Jo Konta of Great Britain in the first round in the same quarter of the draw as Halep.

The field lacks defending champion Ash Barty of Australia, not traveling due to the coronavirus pandemic.

Also out: U.S. Open winner Naomi Osaka, citing a sore hamstring and tight turnaround from prevailing in New York two weeks ago.

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2020 French Open men’s singles draw, results

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Rafael Nadal was put into the same half of the French Open draw as fellow 2018 and 2019 finalist Dominic Thiem of Austria, with top-ranked Novak Djokovic catching a break.

Nadal, trying to tie Roger Federer‘s male record 20 Grand Slam singles titles, could play sixth-seeded German Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals before a potential clash with Thiem, who just won the U.S. Open.

Djokovic, who is undefeated in 2020 save being defaulted out of the U.S. Open, could play No. 7 seed Matteo Berrettini of Italy in the quarterfinals before a possible semifinal with Russian Daniil Medvedev.

Medvedev is the fourth seed but is 0-3 at the French Open. Another possible Djokovic semifinal opponent is fifth seed Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece, who reached the fourth round last year.

The most anticipated first-round matchup is between three-time major champion Andy Murray and 2015 French Open champion Stan Wawrinka. In Murray’s most recent French Open match, he lost in five sets to Wawrinka in the 2017 semifinals.

FRENCH OPEN DRAWS: Men | Women | TV Schedule

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