Plurality of Brazilians feel Rio 2016 medal target too low

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Brazil’s minimum target for the Rio 2016 Olympics of 27 medals, a 59 percent increase over its best-ever output in 2012, is too modest, 40 percent of voters said in an O Globo poll.

Another 34 percent said 27 medals was a bold estimate, while 26 percent said it was just right.

Olympic host nations have statistically received a “bounce effect” in medal tallies, improving 50 percent or more from their total four years before. (OlympStats has broken down the bounce effect for the Olympics immediately after a nation hosts here)

Brazil’s medal target for 2016 — 27 to 30 medals — represents a 59 to 76 percent increase over its 2012 total.

Great Britain won 47 medals in 2008 and then 65 when it hosted in London in 2012, a 38 percent increase. China won 63 medals in 2004 and 100 when it hosted in Beijing in 2008, a 59 percent increase.

Perhaps the people polled look less at the percentage increase than they do at the overall number of 27, which would be the fewest medals of a Summer Olympic host nation since Greece won 16 at Athens 2004.

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