The U.S. would top the Olympic overall and gold medal standings if the Rio Games started today, according to Infostrada’s virtual medal projection updated Tuesday.
The update coincided with Tuesday’s marking of 500 days out from the Rio Olympic Opening Ceremony on Aug. 5, 2016. The projection is based on recent international results.
The U.S. would win 97 medals, with nearly half of them golds, 47, according to the medal projection available here.
The U.S. has won at least 100 medals at each of the last three Olympics. It hasn’t won at least 47 gold medals since it captured 83 at the Los Angeles 1984 Games.
Infostrada has the U.S. topping the overall medal count by 21 over China and the gold medal count by 19 over China. That would continue the Americans’ distancing of the rival Chinese since China earned the most gold medals at Beijing 2008 and came within 10 overall medals of the U.S. at those Games.
Michael Phelps, the most decorated Olympian of all time with 22 medals, would win two more individual gold medals in the 100m butterfly and the 200m individual medley, according to the projection. He’s won each of those races at the last three Olympics.
If he wins those golds, Phelps will pass Soviet gymnast Larisa Latynina for the most career Olympic individual medals with 15. He would also tie U.S. track and field legends Al Oerter (discus) and Carl Lewis (long jump) for the most consecutive Olympic titles in the same individual event.
Usain Bolt would lose to American Justin Gatlin in the 100m, according to the projection. Gatlin, the 2004 Olympic 100m champion five years removed from a four-year doping ban, ran the fastest time in the world in 2014, a 9.77.
Bolt’s last season was cut short due to foot surgery. He ran 9.98. Bolt and Gatlin last went head to head at the 2013 World Championships, won by Bolt, 9.77 to 9.85.
Gymnast Simone Biles would win four individual medals and swimmers Missy Franklin and Katie Ledecky three each, according to the projection.
The U.S. would sweep the basketball and beach volleyball golds.
Host nation Brazil, whose goal is to win 27 to 30 medals, would take home 27 total and 10 golds. Those would both be record totals at a single Games for Brazil, though not surprising given the medal boost nations usually receive with home-field advantage.