Michael Phelps
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For Michael Phelps at Olympic Trials, nothing is a lock

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Bob Bowman was convinced, for no particular reason, that Michael Phelps would perform terribly going into the 2007 World Championships in Melbourne, Australia.

It turned out to be the best meet of his life. Coach and swimmer now agree Phelps swam better in 2007 than at the 2008 Beijing Olympics.

Phelps won all five of his individual events in Melbourne, plus two relays, with five world records total. A preliminary medley relay disqualification, which did not involve Phelps, kept him from a shot at eight gold medals.

How does Bowman’s incorrect prediction from nine years ago factor into next week’s U.S. Olympic Trials?

“What I think really doesn’t matter,” Bowman said Saturday. “What he does in a couple of days is what’s going to matter.”

Neither Bowman nor Phelps were firm in their predictions on the eve of Trials. Not how well he will swim. Not even how many total events he will swim out of the five he’s signed up for.

“We’re in the ‘I don’t know stage’ right now, but in about three days we’ll know,” Bowman said. “I always don’t really have a feel for it until he swims. … I think he’s trained a lot better than he has, and he seems to be doing well in practice. That’s all we can ask for. But I think he’s going to do well.”

Later, Bowman added, “Every sign is good. If it wasn’t, I wouldn’t tell you.”

Which led Phelps to quip, “We’re pretty good at hiding things.”

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Phelps will swim at his fifth and final Olympic Trials in a well-publicized different state than four years ago, when he and Bowman were privately feuding to the point that Phelps once missed 10 straight days of practice.

What Phelps has revealed is that he was frustrated by his pre-Trials tune-up meet three weeks ago in Austin, Texas.

He is expected to have designs on making the Olympic team in three individual events — the 100m and 200m butterflies and the 200m individual medley — and being part of the 4x100m and 4x200m freestyle relay pools, along with the 4x100m medley relay.

“I did a lot of thinking, and I’m pretty much set on what I want to swim,” Phelps said. “You guys will see the first event soon.”

Phelps’ earliest possible Trials race would be a 200m freestyle preliminary heat Monday morning at the CenturyLink Center. He could scratch that event, though, since he doesn’t have to race it to be eligible for the 4x200m free relay.

“Nothing is a lock,” Phelps, who hasn’t posted a strong individual 200m free time in his comeback, said of the relays. “Whoever is swimming the best should be on this relay. Obviously, if you’re in a rhythm, and you didn’t swim it at Trials, or you didn’t swim it at a meet leading up to it, and the coach thinks you should be on it, then that’s their decision. I’m fine with whatever they choose.”

Decisions on relay lineups are made by the U.S. coaching staff. Bowman is the U.S. men’s head coach.

“You have to weigh how he does at these Trials, and if he’s at his top level, you have to assume he’s at his top level across the board,” Bowman said.

MORE: Olympic Swimming Trials broadcast schedule

Maria Sharapova appears set to miss Tokyo Olympics

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Maria Sharapova, who would have a difficult time qualifying for the Olympics next year, committed to play an event in California the week of the Tokyo Games.

Sharapova is scheduled to play World Team Tennis matches in California during the Olympic tennis events in late July, according to a press release. Sharapova’s longtime agent hasn’t responded to a message seeking confirmation that she is ruling out the Tokyo Games.

Sharapova, 32 and the 2012 Olympic silver medalist, was barred from the Rio Games due to her 15-month meldonium suspension in 2016 and 2017. That alone could rule her ineligible for Tokyo, given the World Anti-Doping Agency’s sanctions against Russia on Monday.

Sharapova is ranked No. 131 after a season shortened by shoulder surgery. She would have to be among the top four ranked Russian women after the French Open in June for possible automatic Olympic qualification. She is currently the 14th Russian.

Olympic eligibility rules include minimum participation requirements in Fed Cup, which Sharapova hasn’t done in this Olympic cycle, though exceptions can be made.

Sharapova’s passion for the Olympics is well documented.

She carried the Russian flag into the London 2012 Opening Ceremony and carried the Olympic flame into Fisht Stadium at the Sochi 2014 Opening Ceremony, where she worked for NBC Olympics.

“It was the one thing that my parents allowed me to watch on TV late into the evening was the Olympics,” Sharapova said in 2017. “I grew up watching figure skating and hockey and a little bit of tennis. … Just capturing the Opening Ceremonies and seeing all the countries and the little hats that they wore, and I, as a little girl, I just imagined that maybe it would be me. But I never, ever thought that I would be carrying the flag.

“I received that [flag] honor in a text message, which is a very Russian way of communicating. I originally thought it was a joke, a big fat joke. Then I showed it to my mother, and she [said], no, they probably wouldn’t joke like that.”

In February 2016, Sharapova entered a Fed Cup tie, despite saying she was injured, in order to receive Olympic eligibility. One month later, her failed drug test was announced.

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Russia banned from Olympics, world champs for 4 years; athletes could compete as neutrals

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Russia is banned from the next two Olympics and other major sports events for four years, though its athletes could still compete without representing the country if cleared by anti-doping authorities.

Russia’s hosting of world championships in Olympic sports also face being stripped after the World Anti-Doping Agency executive committee approved a full slate of recommended sanctions for tampering with a Moscow laboratory database.

Russian athletes will be allowed to compete in major events — including world championships — only if they are not implicated in positive doping tests or their data was not manipulated, according to the WADA ruling. “In this circumstance, they may not represent the Russian Federation,” according to a WADA release.

“While I understand the calls for a blanket ban on all Russian athletes whether or not they are implicated by the data, it was the unanimous view of the CRC [compliance review committee], which includes an athlete, that in this case, those who could prove their innocence should not be punished, and I am pleased that the WADA ExCo [executive committee] agreed with this,” WADA CRC chairman Jonathan Taylor said.

There are 145 unnamed athletes within WADA’s “target group of most suspicious athletes” from 2012-15 who would not be allowed to compete at the Olympics, Taylor said, adding that it’s possible those names will be made public. About one-third of them are still active.

Russia’s anti-doping agency can appeal the decision within 21 days. Russia previously signaled it would appeal the ruling.

“The decision will come into effect only when it becomes final ie when either RUSADA accepts it or it is upheld by the Court of Arbitration for Sport,” a WADA spokesperson said in an email.

Russia avoided blanket bans for the Rio and PyeongChang Olympics after a state-run doping program was exposed by media and WADA investigations after Russia hosted the 2014 Sochi Winter Games.

Approved Russian athletes competed as neutrals — “Olympic Athletes from Russia” — including in team sports in PyeongChang. Those Russians combined to earn two gold medals (figure skater Alina Zagitova and men’s hockey) and 17 overall, compared to the leading 33 Russia earned at the Sochi Olympics before medals were stripped for doping.

“Will Russian athletes be accepted as Olympic Athletes from Russia?” during the ban, Taylor said. “No, they are neutral athletes, which means not representatives of any country. Not representatives of Russia.”

Going forward, “they cannot use the name of the country in the name of the team,” WADA president-elect Witold Bańka told The Associated Press.

Two of the 168 Russians who competed in PyeongChang failed drug tests and were punished for doping.

More recent evidence shows that Russian authorities tampered with a Moscow laboratory database to hide hundreds of potential doping cases and falsely shift the blame onto whistleblowers, WADA investigators and the International Olympic Committee said last month. “Flagrant manipulation” of the Moscow lab data was “an insult to the sporting movement worldwide,” the IOC said last month.

“Russia was afforded every opportunity to get its house in order … but it chose instead to continue in its stance of deception and denial,” WADA president Craig Reedie said.

Russia will be allowed to participate in the Youth Olympics in Lausanne, Switzerland, that open Jan. 9.

WADA’s inability to fully expel Russia from the Tokyo Olympics and 2022 Beijing Winter Games frustrated the doping watchdog’s vice president.

“I’m not happy with the decision we made today. But this is as far as we could go,” said Linda Helleland, a Norwegian lawmaker who serves on WADA executive committee and has long pushed for a tougher line against Russia. “This is the biggest sports scandal the world has ever seen. I would expect now a full admission from the Russians and for them to apologize on all the pain all the athletes and sports fans have experienced.”

Although the IOC has called for the strongest possible sanctions, it wants those sanctions directed at Russian state authorities rather than athletes or Olympic officials.

“To allow Russia to escape a complete ban is yet another devastating blow to clean athletes, the integrity of sport and the rule of law,” USADA CEO Travis Tygart said in a statement. “And, in turn, the reaction by all those who value sport should be nothing short of a revolt against this broken system to force reform.”

Russia’s Olympic champion women’s handball team is currently competing at the world championships in Japan. Its next match is Tuesday against Montenegro. Russia has been the scheduled host for the world luge championships in Sochi in mid-February.

The “major sports” events that fall under WADA’s sanctions do not include European Championships or other non-world championships events such as tennis’ upcoming Australian Open.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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