Michael Phelps, Katie Ledecky
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Olympic Swimming Trials reveal where U.S. stands versus world

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No one stat can sum up the U.S. Olympic Swimming Trials and American hopes for the Rio Games, but here’s an interesting note:

One world record was set during the Olympic Trials from June 26-July 3, but it was not broken in the CenturyLink Center pool in Omaha. Australian Cate Campbell lowered the 100m freestyle standard in Brisbane.

No world records fell at the U.S. Trials for a second straight time, not shocking given half of the world records in the 26 individual Olympic events are from the super-suit era of 2008 and 2009.

At the 2015 World Championships, the U.S. earned its fewest medals in Olympic swimming events at an Olympics or worlds in 50 years. It still stood atop the gold- and overall-medal standings, but as Trials proved again last week, the rest of the world is as competitive as ever.

Five thoughts off the Swimming Trials with an eye toward Rio:

1. Scarcity of Gold

If the Olympic swimming results copy the current world rankings, the U.S. would earn six individual golds and 23 individual medals in the Rio pool. The 23 medals is right on average during the Michael Phelps era, but six golds would cut the London 2012 total in half.

The six U.S. swimmers who are fastest in the world this year:

Katie Ledecky (200m freestyle)
Katie Ledecky (400m freestyle)
Katie Ledecky (800m freestyle)
David Plummer (100m backstroke)
Josh Prenot (200m breaststroke)
Lilly King (100m breaststroke)

Notice that Michael Phelps is not on this list. For as impressive as Phelps was at Trials, he ranks second, second and sixth in the world this year in his three events. He led the world rankings in those events last year.

2. Mixed Results for Big Four

Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky pretty much took care of business in Omaha. Phelps won all three of his events (100m and 200m butterflies and 200m individual medley). Though he skipped the 100m and 200m freestyles, he is expected to be chosen for the 4x100m and 4x200m free relays in Rio given his form last week and his experience on those teams.

However, Phelps’ best times in his three events this year are significantly slower than his best times from 2015 — .55 slower in the 100m butterfly, 1.16 slower in the 200m individual medley and 1.91 slower in the 200m butterfly. In 2008 and 2012, Phelps was faster at the Olympics than at Trials, but never by a half-second in the 100m fly or a full second in the 200m fly or 200m IM.

Ledecky swept the 200m, 400m and 800m frees in typical dominating fashion. The question going into Trials was how Ledecky would fare in the 100m freestyle, not a wheelhouse event. Ledecky was seventh in 53.99 seconds, which was .24 slower than her personal-best time from Jan. 15. If Ledecky repeated that personal best in Omaha, she would have tied for third and guaranteed herself a place on the 4x100m free relay. Now, we wait and see what the coaches decide.

Of the Big Four, Ryan Lochte and Missy Franklin entered Trials with the most to prove. Lochte, injured throughout his decorated career, overcame a groin pull in his first swim of the meet to make the team in the 200m individual medley and the 4x200m free relay. His schedule in Rio (potentially five swims) will be far lighter than in London (13 swims), and at 31 years old, these are looking like his final Games.

Franklin, a four-time 2012 Olympic champion and six-time 2013 World champion, was not injured in Omaha, but she had not been the same swimmer since suffering back spasms at the 2014 Pan Pacific Championships. After missing the team in her first event, the 100m backstroke, a concerned Franklin stated a bare-minimum goal — “I just need to make the team.”

Swimming under that kind of pressure for the first time in her career, Franklin summoned second-place finishes in the 200m backstroke and 200m freestyle. She must improve greatly to earn individual medals in Rio, as she is ranked Nos. 9 and 11 in those events in the world this year.

3. The Rise of DiRado

Three swimmers made the Olympic team in three individual events — Michael Phelps and Katie Ledecky, as expected, but also Maya DiRado. Looking at times from the last year, DiRado’s sweep of the 200m and 400m individual medleys and the 200m backstroke was no surprise.

But to those who follow the sport more on the once-every-four-years basis, DiRado is a new name. She finished fourth in the 200m and 400m IMs at the 2012 Olympic Trials at age 19, then made the team for the 2013 Worlds, 2014 Pan Pacific Championships and 2015 Worlds, earning medals at each meet.

In Rio, DiRado will be an underdog in all three of her individual events but a solid medal contender. Her world rankings for 2016:

200m back — fourth
200m IM — third
400m IM — fifth

4. Most Rookies Since 2000

Not since Michael Phelps‘ first Games has the U.S. Olympic swimming team included this many rookies.

There are 30 in the pool and in all but four individual events (men’s 50m freestyle, 400m freestyle and 200m individual medley and women’s 200m freestyle).

How the young members handle their first Games is unknown. In some instances, Olympic rookies have risen to the occasion (Misty HymanRebecca Soni, Missy Franklin and Katie Ledecky are recent notables). The Rio Games being in a more familiar time zone than the past four Olympics should help.

5. Farewell, Gold Medalists

The Trials likely marked the end of Olympic careers for Natalie CoughlinMatt Grevers and Cullen Jones and definitely for the retiring Tyler Clary, all Olympic gold medalists.

Coughlin, the headline U.S. female swimmer in 2004 and 2008, made a valiant bid at age 33 to make her fourth Olympic team but finished seventh and 14th in two events. If she had made the Rio team, Coughlin could have broken her tie with Jenny Thompson and Dara Torres for the most Olympic medals earned by a U.S. woman (12).

Grevers had a better shot at the Olympic team than Coughlin, but he lost out in a three-man race for two 100m backstroke spots. Grevers took 2012 Olympic and 2013 World titles and the 2015 World bronze medal in the event, but David Plummer and Ryan Murphy swam the fastest times in the world this year at Trials. Grevers is ranked No. 4 in the world, but No. 3 in the U.S. Cruelly, no Olympics.

Jones and Clary, training partners in Charlotte, finished third in their primary events — 50m freestyle and 200m backstroke.

MORE: Connor Jaeger, Abbey Weitzeil end Olympic Swim Trials with wins

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Peter Snell, 3-time Olympic track champion, dies

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WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — Three-time Olympic champion and world mile record-holder Peter Snell has died in Dallas. He was aged 80.

Snell, who is regarded as one of the greatest middle-distance runners of all-time, won the 800m at the 1960 Rome Olympics aged 21, and the 800m-1500m double at the 1964 Tokyo Games.

He was the first man since 1920 to win the 800m and 1500m at the same Olympics. No male athlete has done so since.

Snell also won two Commonwealth Games gold medals in the 880 yards and mile at Perth in 1962.

He twice held the mile world record and also held world records in the 800m, 880 yards, 1000m, and the 4xmile relay.

Snell’s death was confirmed by family friend and New Zealand sports historian Ron Palenski, who heads New Zealand’s Sport Hall of Fame.

“It is very sad news, a grievous loss for New Zealand,” Palenski said. “In terms of track and field, he is probably the greatest athlete New Zealand has had.”

Snell was coached by Arthur Lydiard, an innovator who was regarded as one of the world’s finest coaches of middle and long distance athletes. Lydiard also coached Murray Halberg to win the 5000m at Rome in 1960.

Snell’s wife, Miki, said he died suddenly at his home in Dallas around noon on Thursday. He had been suffering from a heart ailment and had required a pacemaker for several years.

Snell’s athletics career was relatively short. He retired in 1965 to pursue educational opportunities in the United States.

Snell graduated with a Bachelor of Science degree in human performance from the University of California, Davis, and later with a Ph.D. in exercise physiology from Washington State University.

He became a research fellow at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in 1981, later becoming director of the university’s Human Performance Center.

Snell was knighted by New Zealand in 2009. A statue in his honor stands at Cooks Gardens, Whanganui, near his birthplace of Opunake, where he broke the mile world record for the first time in 1962.

Grand Prix Final results show women’s figure skating revolution progressing quickly

Grand Prix Final podium
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The revolution in women’s figure skating is being televised.

That’s a turn of phrase on an admittedly dated reference (Google it). The point is we all have been able to witness, from TV broadcasts or live streams, a season with the most radical change in the sport since child prodigy Sonja Henie, then age 11, began doing jumps in her programs nearly a century ago.

What we watched other child prodigies do at last week’s Grand Prix Final boggled the minds of even those who saw it coming, because no one imagined it coming this soon and to this degree.

This essentially Russian revolution, which has taken maximum advantage of the scoring system and youthful body types to overthrow longtime technical norms of women’s skating, has split the discipline into haves and have-nots.

There are those who have the high-scoring quadruple jumps or multiple triple Axels to seize all the medals. And those who do not have those big jumps and, as of now, no chance to regain the podiums from which they have been summarily ousted.

Given what already had happened this season, it was not surprising that Russian first-year seniors Alena Kostornaia, Anna Shcherbakova and Alexandra Trusova swept the medals in the senior Final. Each had qualified by winning two of the six events in the Grand Prix series.

What is surprising is how far and fast the Troika – as NBC commentator and two-time Olympian Johnny Weir artfully nicknamed them, in a reference to a traditional Russian three-horse sled – has pushed the envelope and how far and fast they have left everyone else behind.

And imagine what the gap could be if women were allowed to do quads in the short program, which likely will be proposed at next year’s International Skating Union congress.

A year ago, it was shocking when the Troika, then all juniors internationally, swept the medals at the senior Russian Championships. Now it will be shocking if they don’t do it again at this year’s Russian Championships, which take place Dec. 24-29.

No women were regularly doing quads until last season. Consider what the Troika has done just this autumn:

*Kostornaia, 16, did not attempt a triple Axel in international competition before this season. Now she is doing one in the short program and two in the free, and all three were very well executed as she took gold at the Grand Prix Final.

*Shcherbakova, 15, began her international season the way she had finished last year at junior worlds, with one quad Lutz in the free skate; at the Grand Prix Final, she did two quad Lutzes (one clean, one under-rotated) and attempted her first quad flip (fall) in finishing second.

*Trusova, 15, began this season after having landed quad Lutz, quad Salchow and quad toe loop as a junior, but she was not attempting more than two in a program. In her senior Grand Prix debut at Skate Canada, she did four quads (three clean). At the Grand Prix Final, she added an excellent quad flip for five free skate quads, one of which she doubled and three of which were clean. She also attempted (and under-rotated) a triple Axel for the first time in the short program.

Even with the mistakes, the quads still racked up enough points for Shcherbakova that she beat a flawless Kostornaia in the free skate. And they gave Trusova a 20.71-point overall margin over fourth finisher Rika Kihira, 17, of Japan, who already had mastered triple Axels but has dropped so far from contention against the Troika that Kihira tried (and fell on) her first quad in competition.

And you have to feel a little sorry for reigning Olympic and world champion Alina Zagitova of Russia, at the technical cutting edge of her sport less than two years ago, now utterly overmatched – and still just 17 years old.

Zagitova’s free skate, an error-filled mess, dropped her from second after a fine short (less than six points behind Kostornaia) to sixth overall, more than 42 points behind Kostornaia and nearly 28 behind the third-place Trusova.

Even had she skated cleanly, having a long program with no quads or triple Axels meant the base value of Zagitova’s elements was more than 30 points less than Trusova’s, more than 20 less than Shcherbakova’s and about five less than Kostornaia’s. Zagitova would have needed otherworldly Grades of Execution marks and program component scores to compete for a medal.

Zagitova acknowledged the futility of her current situation by telling a Russian TV station Friday she was effectively putting her competitive career on hold by withdrawing from the Russian Championships and not asking to be considered for selection for either the European or world championships.

According to a Eurosport summary of the interview, Zagitova said she needed to find new motivation to continue competing. The story quoted her as saying she intended to do shows and keep training under her longtime coach, Eteri Tutberidze, who also coaches the Troika.

Zagitova also said she intended to learn new elements and ways to go into jumps.

“I need to find the desire to want to go into a competition,” she said, according to a translation. “The athletes who have gone down that road will understand me.”

Those who decry how much the quads have thrown the sport’s athletic-artistic balance out of whack found some satisfaction in Kostornaia’s having won with a performance and interpretive quality rare for a skater of her age.

Yet Kostornaia also accumulated some 21 free skate points for her triple Axels, about 13 more points than fifth-place finisher Bradie Tennell of the U.S. got for two clean double Axels. Even if Tennell had not made some relatively small mistakes, there was no way she could make up that difference.

And remember that if Trusova had cleanly landed the quad she doubled and the quad that resulted in a fall, she could have overcome not only her short program mistake but also the margin Kostornaia built in program components with clearly superior skating skills and artistry.

Tennell, 21, the top U.S. woman at the 2018 Olympics (ninth) and the last two World Championships (sixth and seventh), this season has displayed the best overall level of skating in her career. But a lack of quads and triple Axels has dropped her exponentially further behind the leaders.

Yet Tennell presses on.

“She may never catch them, but we keep pushing forward, trying to improve on both components and technical,” said Denise Myers, who coaches Tennell. “She is not settling for where she is now.”

About a month ago, I began to wonder if changing the factoring of the five Program Component Scores (PCS) so that they were the same for women as for men would level a playing field that has tilted so dramatically toward the jumpers.

Since the International Judging System was introduced in 2004, factors of .8 (short program) and 1.6 (long) have been applied to the raw total of each woman’s component score. They are 1.0 and 2.0 for men.

The logic behind the difference was until last season, a men’s free skate was 30 seconds longer with one more element. (Why it also applied to the short program is unclear, since the number of elements and time have been the same.)

“The idea of possible new factors for the program components for men was evaluated in the past season, because for the top skaters the technical score in the last years had considerably increased,” Italy’s Fabio Bianchetti, chair of the ISU technical committee for singles and pairs, said in an email.

“At the moment, for the majority of the [men], the [PCS] is still corresponding to about 50 percent of the total score. In some cases, the relation might not be exact, but a rule must consider all the skaters and not only the top five.

“Now we are dealing with the same situation for the ladies. This is something totally new, and we will study the problem during the season. But again, we cannot look at a couple of skaters only.”

In a recent interview with Nick Zaccardi of NBC Sports, Weir seconded the idea of giving the women’s PCS scores the same weight as the men’s.

“It would give them a little better chance,” Samuel Auxier, an international judge and former U.S. Figure Skating, said in a text message last month.

So much has changed on the jump front since then that it turns out using the men’s PCS factors would have had almost no impact on the women’s results at the Grand Prix Final.

With some computational help from skatingscores.com, I recalculated the PCS scores from the Final with the 1.0 and 2.0 factors, added them to the TES scores and found just one difference: Kostornaia would have moved from second to first in the free skate. The overall and short program finish order would have been the same.

Actual Grand Prix Final scores
One of these (factor .8 / 1.6) shows the actual scores. Skatingscores.com
A re-imagined scoring of the Grand Prix Final
The Refactored scores show what they would be with factors of 1.0 and 2.0. Skatingscores.com

So, the 20% adjustment of PCS factor gender equality is not enough to put women without the most difficult jumps into medal contention.

And as Bianchetti pointed out, making that change or a more substantial one in the women’s factoring must take into consideration not only a few exceptional new talents.

“I truly do not believe that anyone seriously thought a lady would deliver four quads so quickly and especially at such a young age,” Ted Barton of Canada, who was involved in the creation of IJS, said in a text message last month. “Alysa Liu is a good American example of what the present is and future might be.”

(And, yes, there is an elephant in the room: whether the young talents are getting exaggerated PCS scores from judges smitten by their jumping. That’s a question for another day – or lifetime.)

Yet there is every indication the Troika are only the leading edge of a blizzard of jumping phenoms, not only from Russia. After all, Junior Grand Prix Final silver medalist Liu, 14, last season became the youngest singles champion in U.S. history with three triple Axels, and she has added a quad Lutz this season.

“The factoring and [other] calculations were developed on what was being done at that point,” Barton said. “Now that skaters have shown new possibilities, the technical committees will look to see what adjustments can and should be made. Interesting times, indeed.”

For now, though, we are seeing in real time the unsettling effect revolutions can have.

And it seems surreal.

Philip Hersh, who has covered figure skating at the last 11 Winter Olympics, is a special contributor to NBCSports.com/figure-skating.

MORE: What’s next for Nathan Chen after third consecutive Grand Prix Final win?

As a reminder, you can watch the events from the 2019-20 figure skating season live and on-demand with the ‘Figure Skating Pass’ on NBC Sports Gold. Go to NBCsports.com/gold/figure-skating to sign up for access to every ISU Grand Prix and championship event, as well as domestic U.S. Figure Skating events throughout the season. NBC Sports Gold gives subscribers an unprecedented level of access on more platforms and devices than ever before.

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