Olympic medal forecaster has U.S. topping Tokyo 2020 standings

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TOKYO (AP) — If the Tokyo Olympics were opening today, the United States would top the overall medal count and the gold-medal count.

That’s the forecast released Tuesday by Gracenote Sports, which supplies statistical analysis for sports leagues around the world.

Simon Gleave, the head of sports analysis at Gracenote, said his model has the United States winning 51 gold medals, 34 silver, and 41 bronze for 126 overall. China is picked to finish second with 38 gold and 81 overall.

Host nation Japan is third, which would be a strong showing for a country with a much smaller population than China or the United States. Japan is predicted to win 29 gold medals, 67 overall and take advantage of the “home-field advantage” that almost always goes to the host nation. Spain got a boost back in the ’92 Barcelona Olympics, China jumped in 2008 in Beijing, as did Britain in London in 2012.

The Tokyo Olympics open on July 24, 2020.

The next seven countries ranked in order of overall medals are: Russia (65), Britain (43), Australia (43), France (41), Germany (38), Netherlands (34), and Italy (32).

This is fifth forecast Gleave has put together and the record is solid.

“Sometimes countries over-perform, or under-perform, and that’s not to do with our model,” Gleave told AP in an interview. “That just happens in sport.”

Three years ago in Rio de Janeiro, Gracenote picked the order of the top three countries correctly, and picked eight of the top 10 medal-winning countries. In the 2018 PyeongChang Winter Olympics, it correctly picked Norway to win a record number of medals and finish ahead of No. 2 Germany. It also picked the top four countries correctly, and in the correct order. Its predictions for seven of the top 10 countries were within one or two medals of their final totals.

Russia is a major headache. Its track and field athletes are still banned from Tokyo following a widespread doping scandal. The governing body of track and field, the IAAF, has had a ban on the Russian athletics federation since 2015. Russia’s medal total of course will be impacted by any change in eligibility.

“If just before the Olympics, Russia is allowed to enter again it’s going to be a bit of an issue,” Gleave said of the medal predictions.

Other highlights.

— Britain finished in the top three in the last two Olympics, but is expected to fall out of that ranking. Look for Australia and Britain to be vying for a spot in the top five.

— The Netherlands is picked to surpass its best overall medal total of 25 — that was 2000 in Sydney — and reach 34.

— The second 10 in overall medal totals predicted are: South Korea (30), Hungary (27), Canada (25), Kenya (20), Spain (20), New Zealand (18), Ukraine (16), Brazil (15), Poland (14), and Turkey (14).

— Women’s participation in Tokyo will almost reach parity with men. Countries not promoting women’s sports are sure to suffer in the medal standings.

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MORE: Tokyo 2020 master competition schedule

Eliud Kipchoge breaks marathon world record in Berlin

Eliud Kipchoge Berlin Marathon
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Kenyan Eliud Kipchoge broke his own world record in winning the Berlin Marathon, clocking 2:01:09 to lower the previous record time of 2:01:39 he set in the German capital in 2018.

Kipchoge, 37 and a two-time Olympic champion, earned his 15th win in 17 career marathons to bolster his claim as the greatest runner in history over 26.2 miles.

His pacing was not ideal. Kipchoge slowed over the second half, running 61:18 for the second half after going out in 59:51 for the first 13.1 miles. He still won by 4:49 over Kenyan Mark Korir.

Ethiopian Tigist Assefa won the women’s race in 2:15:37, the third-fastest time in history. Only Brigid Kosgei (2:14:14 in Chicago in 2019) and Paula Radcliffe (2:15:25 in London in 2003) have gone faster.

American record holder Keira D’Amato, who entered as the top seed, was sixth in 2:21:48.

MORE: Berlin Marathon Results

The last eight instances the men’s marathon world record has been broken, it has come on the pancake-flat roads of Berlin. It began in 2003, when Kenyan Paul Tergat became the first man to break 2:05.

The world record was 2:02:57 — set by Kenyan Dennis Kimetto in 2014 — until Kipchoge broke it for the first time four years ago. The following year, Kipchoge became the first person to cover 26.2 miles in under two hours, doing so in a non-record-eligible showcase rather than a race.

Kipchoge’s focus going forward is trying to become the first runner to win three Olympic marathon titles in Paris in 2024. He also wants to win all six annual World Marathon Majors. He’s checked off four of them, only missing Boston (run in April) and New York City (run every November).

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2022 Berlin Marathon Results

2022 Berlin Marathon
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2022 Berlin Marathon top-10 results and notable finishers from men’s and women’s elite and wheelchair races. Full searchable results are here. ..

Men
1. Eliud Kipchoge (KEN) — 2:01:09 WORLD RECORD
2. Mark Korir (KEN) — 2:05:58
3. Tadu Abate (ETH) — 2:06:28
4. Andamiak Belihu (ETH) — 2:06:40
5. Abel Kipchumba (ETH) — 2:06:40
6. Limenih Getachew (ETH) — 2:07:07
7. Kenya Sonota (JPN) — 2:07:14
8. Tatsuya Maruyama (JPN) — 2:07:50
9. Kento Kikutani (JPN) — 2:07:56
10. Zablon Chumba (KEN) — 2:08:01
DNF. Guye Adola (ETH)

Women
1. Tigist Assefa (ETH) — 2:15:37
2. Rosemary Wanjiru (KEN) — 2:18:00
3. Tigist Abayechew (ETH) — 2:18:03
4. Workenesh Edesa (ETH) — 2:18:51
5. Meseret Sisay Gola (ETH) — 2:20:58
6. Keira D’Amato (USA) — 2:21:48
7. Rika Kaseda (JPN) — 2:21:55
8. Ayuko Suzuki (JPN) — 2:22:02
9. Sayaka Sato (JPN) — 2:22:13
10. Vibian Chepkirui (KEN) — 2:22:21

Wheelchair Men
1. Marcel Hug (SUI) — 1:24:56
2. Daniel Romanchuk (USA) — 1:28:54
3. David Weir (GBR) — 1:29:02
4. Jetze Plat (NED) — 1:29:06
5. Sho Watanabe (JPN) — 1:32:44
6. Patrick Monahan (IRL) — 1:32:46
7. Jake Lappin (AUS) — 1:32:50
8. Kota Hokinoue (JPN) — 1:33:45
9. Rafael Botello Jimenez (ESP) — 1:36:49
10. Jordie Madera Jimenez (ESP) — 1:36:50

Wheelchair Women
1. Catherine Debrunner (SUI) — 1:36:47
2. Manuela Schar (SUI) — 1:36:50
3. Susannah Scaroni (USA) — 1:36:51
4. Merle Menje (GER) — 1:43:34
5. Aline dos Santos Rocha (BRA) — 1:43:35
6. Madison de Rozario (BRA) — 1:43:35
7. Patricia Eachus (SUI) — 1:44:15
8. Vanessa De Souza (BRA) — 1:48:37
9. Alexandra Helbling (SUI) — 1:51:47
10. Natalie Simanowski (GER) — 2:05:09

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